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Ismael Valdez grew NextGen Air Conditioning from zero to $100M+ in 7 years before selling to Wrench Group. He runs Nuve now, a branded thermostat built for HVAC contractors.
He opens every talk with the same two numbers.
The HVAC industry retains 8% of its customers. The alarm industry retains 94%.
Both figures come from ServiceTitan data. Same kind of business: install once, service forever. One keeps almost everyone. The other loses almost everyone.
Why the gap exists
Ismael’s diagnosis is uncomfortable.
HVAC lost control of the customer journey the moment the install van pulled out of the driveway.
When the AC dies in August, the homeowner stares at the Ecobee or Honeywell or Nest on the wall. None of those say your company name. So they Google. Then Yelp. Then ask Facebook. By the time the phone rings somewhere, it’s not yours.
The alarm industry didn’t get lucky with retention. They got a panel on the wall. When the customer needs help, the customer is looking at their logo. Then they call that number.
You can argue the analogy isn’t perfect. Fine. The deeper point holds.
Every homeowner has a moment of need. The company visible at that moment wins. The company that installed the system 4 years ago and then disappeared doesn’t.
What “staying visible” looks like for HVAC
You can’t put a branded thermostat on every system. But you can stay in front of customers between service calls.
A few things that work:
- A review request that fires after every job. Customer looks at their phone and sees your name.
- A maintenance reminder that shows up twice a year. Customer gets a text from your shop before they need you.
- A seasonal check-in text. Something simple. You’re still there.
None of these are aggressive. They’re reminders that you exist and that you care about whether the system you installed is still working.
The shops that retain customers aren’t doing anything exotic. They’re just present at more moments than the shops that disappear after the paperwork.
The review piece matters here too
One of the ways you stay visible is through Google reviews.
A homeowner who leaves a review right after a job is more likely to call you back next time they have a problem. They wrote your name down. They’ve publicly said they trust you. That relationship isn’t gone when the AC breaks in three years.
The shops with 500+ reviews aren’t just winning new customers. They’re keeping old ones.
Where this connects to after-hours capture
There’s a version of this problem that happens on the front end.
You install a system. The customer calls you back 18 months later with a question. It’s 8 PM. Nobody picks up. No text back. They hang up and Google it.
The second option they find is a competitor with a text-back running. They book.
You didn’t just lose a lead. You lost a customer who had already bought from you once.
The 8% vs 94% retention gap isn’t just about what you do after the install. It’s about whether you’re there every single time a customer tries to reach you.
That includes the 9 PM call.
(Source: Ismael Valdez, NextGen Air Conditioning / Nuve, on Hook Agency’s podcast “Increasing Customer Loyalty in HVAC.” Customer retention stats from ServiceTitan data cited by Valdez.)